Electoral College ratings for six states have shifted toward Republicans in former President Donald Trump‘s favor as the fate of President Joe Biden’s political future as the Democrats’ nominee remains on shifting sands.
The Cook Political Report shifted three states — Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada — from “toss-up” to “lean Republican” and shifted two other states, Minnesota and New Hampshire, from “likely” to “lean Democrat.” Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District also shifted from “likely” to “lean” Democrat.
“The notion that the presidential [race] is a Toss Up was a stretch even before the debate,” the Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman said of the electoral map. “Today, Trump has a clear advantage over Biden and a much more plausible path to 270 Electoral votes.”
The notion that the presidential is a Toss Up was a stretch even before the debate. Today, Trump has a clear advantage over Biden and a much more plausible path to 270 Electoral votes.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) July 9, 2024See AlsoAnalysis: How Biden’s 2024 choice could reshape the Senate and Supreme Court for years | CNN PoliticsBiden says during news conference he's going to 'complete the job' despite calls to bow outIn a critical press conference, Biden will attempt to convince voters he can carry the day as calls grow for him to stand asideDemocrats will be defending a slim Senate majority in 2024. Here's a look at the states where both parties are fighting for control of the chamber.
The election analyst cites Biden’s poor debate performance on June 27 as a reason for the rating shifts. The president’s lackluster display onstage has called into question whether he is the right presidential candidate to help the party defeat Trump. After a lengthy meeting between House Democrats earlier on Tuesday, the answer is still unclear and there is no consensus.
“Insiders we spoke with over the weekend said they expected a ‘deluge’ of Democratic congressional defections by Monday,” Cook Political Report Editor-in-Chief Amy Walter said in her analysis. “As of Tuesday morning, those desertions have amounted to no more than a trickle. Even so, plenty of nervous down-ballot Democrats and donors are hoping that team Biden, confronted with worsening poll numbers and an aggressively antagonistic press corps, will see the writing on the wall and gracefully announce his exit from the contest. That possibility looks remote as of this writing.
“We can’t wave away the uncertainty of this moment, but we can try to soberly assess where things stand today, and where they are likely to go from here,” Walter continued.
Trump widened his lead over Biden by 6 percentage points nationwide following the first presidential debate of the cycle. In a poll from June 30 to July 2, the former president’s lead narrowed to an average of 4 points across Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Nevada.
According to Cook Political Report, Trump has over a 3-point lead in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada and Biden has less than a percentage point lead in Wisconsin and Michigan. In Pennsylvania, Trump holds a 0.7-point lead.
Walter noted that given the narrow margins across the electorate, even a 2-point shift has significant implications for the presidential race.
“For example, if Trump were to win the national popular vote by three points, it would be a seven-point improvement from his 2020 showing,” Walter wrote. “In other words, any state or district that Biden carried by eight points or less would be competitive.”
Democratic lawmakers, pundits, and strategists have sounded the alarm over whether Biden is the party’s best path forward to retaking the House, maintaining a majority in the Senate, and keeping the White House. Leaving the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee headquarters today, several House Democrats declined to offer any insight into whether the Democratic conference is solidly behind behind.
One member, Rep. Glenn Ivey (D-MD), said there is a time limit on how long disunity within the caucus can last.
“I think it’s gotta wrap up by the convention,” Ivey said. “But, you know, hopefully, we’ll be able to sort of nail this topic down sooner rather than later.”
As Walter noted in her analysis, Democrats were hoping the debate at the end of June would give the party a chance to highlight Trump’s misgivings and Biden’s administrative record. Since then, Republican lawmakers on Capitol Hill have found a moment of relief as eyes and ears are locked in on Democrats over the state of Biden’s candidacy.
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Some Democrats have argued this rhetoric and calls from colleagues for Biden to step down will only weaken the president and the party further.
“We do need to turn the attention back to Trump,” Rep. Jared Huffman (D-CA) said. “And it’s important, I mean, there comes a time where the family conversation has to refocus on winning.”
