Kevin Cox' Selections And Analysis (2024)

Yet another good day for us here yesterday with the following:

--5 Exacta Boxes of $27, $10, $61, $28 & $36 ( cold )

--Three Triple Boxes of $76, $17 & $330

--Three Winners of $9, $14 & $6

-- A successful Beatable Favorite

See Also

Belmont Stakes 2021: Odds, picks, analysis, previewKevin Cox' Selections And AnalysisBelmont: Why Cox is putting blinkers on Angel of Empire22 - Kevin "Brooklyn Cowboy" Cox Aqueduct Selections

We are now guaranteed a Flat Bet Profit until at least the first race on Sunday, July 28th.

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 12 - #1 Factor Analysis

Please visit the Old Friends at Cabin Creek website ( by clicking the image to the left ) and consider helping out, as every little bit counts! I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1.

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.

They're throwing a dozen at us today on a 6 hour and 16 minute scheduled afternoon, so bring your arch supports. #8 NUDGE merely split the field at first asking, but his entrymate went wire to wire that afternoon, and was actually favored in the Sanford before being scratched. Perhaps this fella wasn't fully cranked up that day, and he appears to be well suited for today's surface transition. Both female grandparents excelled on the green stuff, with one of them having gone 6 of 13 over the blades, including a Graded Stakes win and we see this one as being no worse than second for all of you who like to grind out a place profit. #3 CLEVER AGAIN appears to have the best shot of upsetting the apple cart given the gamely and well clear runner up first time out, and actually may be better suited for the green stuff than the brown. Appears to be the lone threat off the comebacker. #5 HELICITY closed out the tri at 17-1 down in Hallandale Beach in the June overture, and gets an upgrade in the irons off of that effort. OFF TURF: 13(AE)-1-5-7-2 NOTE: AS OF 10:29, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

#1 STARSHIP DEFIANT has played the fade in her last pair, and is now dropped way down the ladder for today's second off the shelf deal. The good news though, is that she's done decently off of this type of break, and barn is a tight three of five when giving their mid level dirt stock a drop in class or 50% of more, off breaks of a Baker's dozen days or less. #3 MY FIRST LOVE picked up 20% of the pot in a near identical spot a month back, and merits inclusion off of that. #5 IT TAKES HEART has never seen these depths, but has partaken in the superfecta in all three starts off the pine. Recognize the tally in her lone win over this oval. NOTE: AS OF 10:33, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

#2 NANO MAN posted a career best figaro when taking the biggest drop in the game last time out, and while a regression is always possible off of that, perhaps the light bulb stays on for today's third start off the bench. From a DRF Formulator point of view, Kimmel is three for five with maiden special weight sod sprinters who crashed the fiesta less than 34 days ago, at 7-1 or less. #1 KING PUCK was a solid runnerup finisher from a disadvantageous slot in the Aqueduct debut two fortnight's back, and the bloodlines tell us that not only was that result likely not an aberration, but there's probably some room for improvement. Should be no worse than a second for those who like to play it a little bit safe. #5 CALL BOB didn't show much in the turf bow, but that was many moons ago, and we like to give a horse two opportunities to prove himself over a particular surface before dismissing. He comes in off a solid effort, so why not? OFF TURF: 5-8-4-2-1 NOTE: AS OF 10:37, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

#6 WINE RESPONSIBLY hasn't been seen since Turkey Time, but gets the "Around the World" treatment for his return, as the blinkers are on, the Lasix is administered, and the pistachios have since disappeared. Seems properly spotted outside of stakes company for the return in making just his second start on a glib surface. #1 SILVER SATIN has yet to miss the triple, and who are we to rock that boat? #3 BOSS TWEED has done nothing but improve over his four starts to date, so who knows where his ceiling is in that regards? Fella has made every call a winning one in his last pair, and must be respected. NOTE: AS OF 10:41, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

#1A INDEPENDENT PAUL has been positively ghastly over his last troika, and now finds himself at a level yet seen. The good news though, ( if there could be any ), is that this outfit more than doubles they're normative 17% batting average when it comes to their mid-level male and dirt stock who missed the board less than a dozen days ago, at 13 to 1 or less. They are 5 of 12 with that sort, and connections got a high priced winner here on Sunday. #3 SAFALOW'S MISSION is a nibbler by nature, and like so many runners today, slides way down the class ladder. We will keep beneath until he proves us wrong, despite the solid trainer stat which has this barn clicking at 4 for 6 rate with dirt entrants who were a part of the triple less than 27 days ago, that are dropping 50% in class or more. #5 SOLO IN PARIS is -- yes another -- runner who has never been entered this cheaply. NOTE: AS OF 10:45, DUE TO A KEY LATE SCRATCH, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 3-8-7.

#7 REFLEXIVITY is a bit of a fragile sort, but lost by only a half a length behind a next out victress in her lone second off the shelf engagement, and now has blinkers added today, likely in hopes of getting her a bit closer to the pace. Mild selection in a race that's difficult to embrace. #6 PAROLA SICURA has been in the money in every sprint thus far, and we like this one's ability to send or rate just a bit. Respect the drop in class off a 35-1 placing last out down at Laurel. #5 GIRLS WEEKEND scored by a pole when last seen at Indiana downs, and is as good as any for the show dough in her initial try on the verde. OFF TURF: 6-8-1-11(MTO)-12(MTO)

#2 AUTHENTIC GALLOP gets his working papers this afternoon, and comes into the race with a pretty snazzy work tab. From a trainer stat aspect, Amoss is 3-5 with those fitting all of this exact criteria ( any sex ). The winners came back $19, $16, and $7, and there's a subcategory of one of one over this oval. This one is a half to graded steaks winner Ami's flatter, who earned more than half a million dollars, and also Amis Gizmo, who was 7 of 10 in his career, earning $800,022 in the process. But wait there's more! Seven of nine runners out of this damn got the job done at first asking, with another one completing the triple at 13-1. The more we type... the more we like. #10 SOCIAL HOUR draws ideally for today's curtain raising, and went for nearly eight times the 65k stud fee right across the street last year. Could be any kind. #6 RANGER BATTALION has a bullet gate move on the docket for today's overture, and you know how we feel about that.

We're not really feeling the heat from this heat, so feel free to go grab yourself a $38 pastrami sandwich. However, for rolling bet purposes, we'll give a slight nod to #3 GUN IT. Claimed today's price tag nine starts back, this grey gelding ( which used to be a nice bar on Broadway a while back ) has earned a fair amount of money since then, and brings in some decent early hoof as well. Jockey/Trainer combo do slightly better together than apart, and poses a big threat if able to scamper away early. #4 COSTA TERRA got waffled in the comebacker, but has blinkers affixed for the first time, and this uncoupled barnmate with the above may perk up for a jockey who is having a nice start to the meet. #7 ARRO SMASH has been beset by back to back lines, but usually gives a good account of himself, and has the all important win over the track. NOTE: AS OF 6:45 P.M. WEDNESDAY, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 4-3-5.

Despite being winless this annum, #6 CASH EQUITY (FR) has fared quite well in closing out the exacta order in three or four times, while losing by less than a length in the other. 6yr. old has been a part of the exacta in four or five starts at today's distance of ground, and is backed by a fat Formulated statistic. Over the last 1,826 days, this Barn is a lively 6 fer 9 with optional sod starters written by T-Gaff off absences of 19 to 42 days. The return on investment for that study is $6.86, but he could do w/ some pace to cut into. #1 PIONEERING SPIRIT has some nice back class, and owns a win and a showing from as many starts at today's dx. #3 BELOUNI (FR) comes in this afternoon off of four consecutive career best speed figures, and it's always hard to dismiss an animal with an upwards arrow alongside the Beyers. OFF TURF: 11(MTO)-10(MT)-1-9-6 NOTE: AS OF 10:49, DUE TO A KEY LATE SCRATCH, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 6-2-3.

#8 POUNCE is a little bit of an in and outer, but you must give him credit for havingwon three of six dots to date, with two of those coming over the green stuff. Most timid of selections in a very competitive rendition of the Lake George. #6 SWEET REBECCA had no palpable excuse when immolating baccala in Aqueduct back in May. Yeah, she got smacked around a bit that day, but we don't think it cost her the race. Chance to get back on track with a slight reduction in class. #2 OVERSUBSCRIBED (GB) came from nearly 20 lengths out of it to win in going away fashion at AQU on 6/22, and has this miss has done nothing but improve; would be Silly McGilly to leave out. OFF TURF: 10-5-6-2-12(AE)

Only a handful signed on for the CCA Oaks today, and to us it looks like a two horse affair. #1 CANDIED didn't show diddly poo when making her first start since the Breeders' Cup back in April, and as a matter of fact she was racing on her wrong lead in the lane that day. The Toddster gave her a couple of months to figure some things out, and found a perfect confidence building spot for her down at The Shore, where she won with ease. The two returnees from that deal finished first and second in the same stakes when next seen, and in a bit of an anomaly, this filly is first to load for the 4th straight time. From a trainer stat aspect, T.P. wipes the competition clean when it comes to his female graded dirt routers who scored 34 to 50 days back, that are less than four to one. He's a perfect five of six in that regards, w/ a positive ROI. While we don't expect her to have the lead here, Franco will have to hustle her a little bit early on to keep her within range. #3 THORPEDO ANNA got the job done in the Acorn despite losing a shoe during the race, but to be honest with you, she could have ran barefoot and gotten the job done that day. Nothing bad to say about her, but as they say in 'Bad Santa', "They can't all be winners kid". We'll go with a slightly bigger price. #5 INTRICATE completed the exacta in her only start when last to load, but to be honest with you, we are really reaching here for a third place finisher.

#3 ARTEMPUS had no reason for fading when last in action down in Louisville, but has been given a bit of time off, and since then, has lost his procreating abilities. Mild selection in a finale that leaves a bit to be desired. #9 FOUR TOP was claimed for 75 large last time out, and is protected against such this afternoon. Chance if able to get back to the penultimate numero. #5 EL REZEEN gives the appearance of being a plodders plodder, but may flash a bit of early dash with eye cups being affixed for the first time. TBH, we'll be long gone by the time this race comes, as we can't foresee a scenario where it inspires us to stick around. OFF TURF: 2-12(AE)-4-5-9 BEATABLE FAVORITE: #1 FACTOR ANALYSIS fills the bill, as Brown i oh-fer-15 with all relevant categories.

Saratoga Summer ( Current ): 13-71 ( $273 ) Beatable Favorites: 1-4 ( 25% ) Favorite's Win %: 25-71 ( 35.2% )( As of Saturday morning )

Aqueduct Spring/Summer ( Final ): 66-292 ( $454.70 )Beatable Favorites: 4-10 ( 40% ) Favorite's Win %: 118-292 ( 40.4% )

Saratoga Spring ( Final ): 7-47 ( $31.20 ) Beatable Favorites: N/A Favorite's Win %: 19-47 ( 40.4% )

Aqueduct Spring( Final ): 28-136 ( $278.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 1-10 ( 10% ) Favorite's Win %: 57-136 ( 41.9% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 85-377 ( $616.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-16 ( 31.3% ) Favorite's Win %139-377 ( 36.9% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )

Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4241-20632 ($34,946.80) +/-: -15.3% against a 16.1% takeout . Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 )

Beatable Favorites : 474-1772( 26.8% ) Favorite's Win %: 7945-21369( 37.2% )

Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4261-21247 ( $35,897.30 ) +/-: -15.5% against a 16.6% takeout

Another nice day for us here yesterday, with a profitable hat trick ( $14 x 2 & $6 ), along with a cold $39 Double, and a successful Beatable Favorite.

We have now shown a flat bet profit in 6 of the 8 days on the stand, and are guaranteed of one until at least the 8th race on July 31st.

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 3 - #10 Devil in Disguise Race 9 - #1 Kiss Me Slow Race 11 - #12 Hush of a Storm

Please visit the Old Friends at Cabin Creek website ( by clicking the image to the left ) and consider helping out, as every little bit counts! I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1.

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.

First race of the day is the A.P. Smithwick Memorial and it's a fairly competitive rendition. #5 ABAAN is what we love about Steeplechase racing. This gelding was a Graded Stakes winner on the flat, while banking a bunch of bread in the process. When things didn't pan out in his first two starts last year, he made a rapid transition to the jumps. All he's done since then, is secure a placing the first time going vertical, before following that up with a quartet of tallies. From a trainer stat point of view, Dalton has won with all three of her stakes jumpers not getting Lasix or breaks of more than 64 days. The winners came back $16, $3, and $10. Looking good once again. #4 ZIGGLE POPS (GB) gave a decent account of himself in the Grade One event down in Ozone Park last month, and as his other start on firm ground yielded a going away win, we have no problems with including. #6PICKANUMBER (IRE) comes off the boat on a four of five race winning streak, and discount the leading trainer in the country at your own peril.

#7 GRACEFUL ROSE immolated some baccala when merely finishing an even third versus slightly weaker last time out, but right off the bat, it's encouraging to see Irad get back on. Also in the good news department, is the fact that this miss lost by only a length at 8-1 the only time she was last to load, and although she goes two turns on the dirt for the first time, we see that the lone 2X turf try was precipitously better than the lone one turn turf try, so that leaves the opportunity for some improvement. From a DRF Formulator standpoint, Gorham gores 'em when it comes to his allowance sand stayers who crashed the fiesta 15 to 44 days in the rear, that are 14-1 or less. He's six of seven with that sort, with a healthy ROI of $5.61. #1 ENIGMATIC enters today off a career best figaro, and while a bounce is always possible off of that maiden breaking effort, we see that the sole returnee got the job done when next in action, replicating the prior speed figure. #3 JUST MUSIC is a gem of consistency, as this girl has been a part of the superfecta in 10 consecutive dirt deals.

We're not really feeling the heat from this heat, so tread lightly. #4 EXCELLENT MEN -- cross-entered yesterday -- has been freshen up a bit after besting only three in his last duet, but we see that the only time you came back after a sabbatical, is snappy and well clear runner up finish at 8-1 was the end result. Mild choice in this spot. #5 JAVA BUZZ hasn't seen the scene in a couple of Easter Sunday's, but is up for grabs for the first time, and has done some nice work at this trip and over the course. #8 OKALOOSA closed out the exacta at 14-1 the only time she was made available for purchase, and could improve off the comeback attempt. OFF TURF: 4-2-5-9-13(MTO) BEATABLE FAVORITE: #10 DEVIL IN DISGUISE NOTE: AS OF 8:02 P.M. SATURDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR 2ND AND 3RD CHOICES.

#9 MS. SEDONA has been beset by a couple of layoff lines from her three starts to date, but if you're willing to discount the debut, and the most recent when she was tardy to the party, then what you have is a solid effort down in Keeneland back in April, when she overcame a troubled onset to finish second at double digit odds. Expect Saez to do his best to have this one a bit more forwardly placed this afternoon. #4 JITTERBUG has improved with each passing start, so right off the bat, who knows where her ceiling is in that regards. May be sitting on a good one in today's third of the bench engagement. #7 PAST TENSE has yet to finish out of the super in her seven starts to date, and who are we to rock that boat? OFF TURF: 7-1-3-6-5

This year's rendition of the Shuvee is a truncated but competitive affair, and we have some information about that Hall of Famer right here for your edification https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shuvee . We'll give a slight edge to #1 SHOTGUN HOTTIE. Gal doesn't need to bring her track with her, as she starts in her 11th different zip code in this, her 21st call to the post. She's outrun her odds quite nicely when placing in both starts when breaking from the pine, and is 3:1-1-1 at today's distance of ground. Bobblehead comes up for the mount. #3 RAGING SEA has a solid overall resume', and that includes a strong victory the only time she was in a third off the shelf deal. We are not quite sure what happened in the most recent, but will give her a chance to make amends due to the top flight connections. #2 VENTI VALENTINE is 3:2-0-1 in Toga Town, and game Empire bred can pick up a share, especially with the adjusted wet track speed figure from the score during Belmont week up here.

#2 BRIGHTERDAYZAHEAD has finished in the back half of the pack in his last quartet, so now the white flag is run up on this fella, as he's spotted for a quarter. To make matters a bit more painful for this critter, he has recently lost his procreating abilities, so you have to assume all systems will be go here. The only time he was in a second off the bench and jammie, a going away winn was the end result, and that affair came when blinkers were removed. Hmmmm...... #4 MIDNIGHT WORKER has outrun his parimutual offering quite nicely in the last triad, partaking in the superfecta in each event. Five year old has the all important win over the course, and is reacquainted with blinkers this afternoon. #5 WHENLOVETAKESOVER has been a part of the triple in his last four heats with a "For Sale" sticker attached to his butt, and apart from that, found the line first in his only pairing w/ today's pilot.

#7 PANACHE ( cross entered at the Pea Patch today, so check the changes ) broke a beat slow when getting her working papers down in Louisville a month back, and the rapidness with which she is switched to the gramma, leads us to believe that race was likely a prep for today. Jockey/Trainer combination fare substantially better than apart, and this outfit is off to a flying start thus far at the stand. The paternal grandsire, Giant's Causeway, needs no introduction, and that one's "spouse" ( for lack of better nomenclature ) went 3:1-1-1 on the synthetic, which we feel translates to the turf quite nicely. We wouldn't be shocked to see an improved effort here. #2 VIRGIN COLADA went for 2.2 times the stud fee at auction last year, and is toting along a decent gate move for today's curtain raising. #8 RAVENITE goes inside to outside for today's secondary outing, and after a troubled beginning to the debut, gets an upgrade in the stirrups here. OFF TURF: 7-10-9-16(MTO)-3

#1 ROAGNA had no palpable excuse for the 7th place finish a couple of months back, but slides in nine post positions off that effort, and six returnees from that deal amassed a win and a placing in the next outings -- but from just two different events. Demand a bit of value here. #8 BUSY MORNING has a win and a third place finish from as many races when going one turn to two, and it's encouraging to see I. Ortiz come back after the disappointing return, especially as they had done well in tandem prior to that. #7 FIRSTTIMEINFOREVER completed the Exacta in a similar spot two fortnight's back, and we see no reason to dismiss. OFF TURF: 3-15(MTO)-16(MTO)-1-2

#2 LAUGHING LADY is a solid prorated play in the spot. Gal begin her debut a half'a beat behind the rest, and ended up splitting the field in what we believe was entirely a prep for today. January foal has a two month maturity edge on all the horses in this race except one, boasts the highest Tomlinson figure at today's dx., slides in six slots off said overture, and is much, much better bred for the brown stuff than the green. Recognize the three improving workouts since that deal, culminating in a scintillating best of 63 gate move right here on Monday. The only thing we feel could keep her from winning today, would be another slow beginning from this insideish placement. We would have preferred her breaking from the outside, but what are you going to do. Looking damn good, nonetheless. 2ND CHOICE/BEATABLE FAVORITE ( as we like our top selection that much ): #1 KISS ME SLOW is another one who has been cranked up in the mornings for today's bow, and well bred runner from a leading barn could be any kind. #7 IMMERSIVE completes our triad of choices doing well in the A.M.'s.

You can feel free to draw an upwards arrow alongside the speed figures of #8 BLACK RAIN, as this chap has done nothing but improve in that department since beginning his career right here last year. From a Formulator point of view, T.P. rolls right along when it comes to his locally based allowance dirt stock going long, who were in the money 33 to 50 days back. He's six of eight with that type, with a return on investment of $4.25. Grab him by the tail to get the glory. #4 SEEKING UNITY has done some fine work since being claimed back in late January, and on the whole has excelled at today's trip. Big time improvement in the stirrups in store also. #6 ROCKETEER flattened out a bit in the Grade 3 event down in Ky. But has the potential to improve in today's "Third off the bench/Second time two turns try".

#5 BAR FOURTEEN seems nicely spotted after being claimed from a strong runnerup finish at this level a month back, and although he is off to a slow start to meet, we like the switch to Looie this afternoon, who is much better on the turf than Vazquez. #1 NEURAL NETWORK hasn't been seen since Hector was a pup, but owns a nice amount of back class, and has the wonder drug added, while having the pistachios removed for today's return engagement. Take a looksee during the warmups. #7 LET'S GO BIG BLUE finished just behind our top choice in their recent encounter, and this one was unjustly disqualified from a stakes win on the Mellon here last year. Logical contender. OFF TURF: 7-2-12(AE)-1-9 BEATABLE FAVORITE: #12 HUSH OF A STORM doesn't make our first cut, so why would we accept favoritism ?

Saratoga Summer ( Current ): 16-83 ( $307.40 ) Beatable Favorites: 1-5 ( 20% ) Favorite's Win %: 29-83 ( 34.9% )( As of Sunday morning )

Aqueduct Spring/Summer ( Final ): 66-292 ( $454.70 )Beatable Favorites: 4-10 ( 40% ) Favorite's Win %: 118-292 ( 40.4% )

Saratoga Spring ( Final ): 7-47 ( $31.20 ) Beatable Favorites: N/A Favorite's Win %: 19-47 ( 40.4% )

Aqueduct Spring( Final ): 28-136 ( $278.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 1-10 ( 10% ) Favorite's Win %: 57-136 ( 41.9% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 85-377 ( $616.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-16 ( 31.3% ) Favorite's Win %139-377 ( 36.9% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )

Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4241-20632 ($34,946.80) +/-: -15.3% against a 16.1% takeout . Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 )

Beatable Favorites : 474-1772( 26.8% ) Favorite's Win %: 7945-21369( 37.2% )

Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4261-21247 ( $35,897.30 ) +/-: -15.5% against a 16.6% takeout

Another good day for us here, with yet another longshot winner ( along with a successful Beatable Favorite ).

Of our 10 winners this meet, three have paid $92, $71 & $37 ( along with a $53 critter who was DQ'd ).

We now have a $4.00 ROI on the stand, and are guaranteed a flat bet profit until at LEAST July 27th.

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 4 - #8 Command Performance

Please visit the Old Friends at Cabin Creek website ( by clicking the image to the left ) and consider helping out, as every little bit counts! I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1.

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.

We're not really feeling the mojo here, so tread lightly. #7 TEST SCORE gets his working papers this afternoon, and although he hasn't done much to get the pulse racing in the mornings, we see that three members of the family tree scored at first asking, two got the job done in their followups, and one got her photo taken third time out. Outside-ish type slot helps matters as well. #6 AMERICA'S HONOR was a little bit awkward at the onset when beginning his working life down in Jersey two fortnite's back, and we like the confidence ship northward, as they were likely some easier options for him down there. #8 NO EVIDENCE is by one of the hottest sires in the game, and went for more than 21 times the stud fee at Ocala just a few months ago. Could be any kind. OFF TURF: 4-2-9-7-5 NOTE: AS OF 6:31 P.M. WEDNESDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS. NOTE: AS OF 11:44, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

#9 IT'S HOT IN HERE (IRE) showed Zippo in her first try against winners down at The Shore, but likely needed that race after an elongated absence, and is now made available for purchase for the first time. Another extremely timid selection in yet another wide open jammie. #8 DEA MATRONA (FR) ( uncoupled entry mate with the above ) showed a bit of improvement when making her second North American start, but fragile sort is another who has the white flag run up on her, so it would behoove you to take a gander during the warmups. #4 WINGS LIKE EAGLES completes our troika of selections with a "For Sale" sticker attached to her butt, but mare completed the triple the only time she was in a third of the bench deal, and could be coming late with any pace to cut into. OFF TURF: 9-6-7-1-5

#2 CORPORATE POWER hasn't been seen since getting up in time to win in a similar spot down at Pimlico two months ago, and is an obvious factor to show some improvement off of that with a tighter sojourn. #1 UNMATCHED WISDOM has been visually impressive in winning both starts to date, and that includes a win at the trip. #5 ELEPHANT'S EAR blew up the tote board to the tune of 98 clams when jumping up in the Beyer department in a big way at the end of June, and while a bounce is always possible, we have no problems in including

#6 YONO enters today having hit the board in four straight events, and that includes an honest enough showing versus slightly tougher down at CD last out. Slight edge. #7 SKYLANDER comes in today off a lifetime best numero, and is understandably moved up the ladder after the impressive score that day. #3 SIX PERCENT has done okay over this oval, but has been camera shy for quite some time, so we'll leave underneath. BEATABLE FAVORITE: #8 COMMAND PERFORMANCE

#2 DAY AWAY outran her parimutual offering quite nicely when completing the triple at 21 to 1 in a strung out field down in Ozone Park, and had been doing some decent work on the turf and synthetic prior to that as well. Filly draws the pine for the first time, & just may sit a nice trip. #4 CAPO DONNA takes the biggest drop in the business this afternoon, and fourth different pilot from as many affairs has done excellent work for this outfit. #3 POSITIVE CARRY has yet to miss the superfecta, and who are we to rock that boat? OFF TURF: 1A(MTO)3-4-2-5

#7 THE TONER ships in from Kentucky, and the most experienced runner in this field totes along an abundance of early zip. Colt has led in 11 of her 12 points of call prior to the finish, and although she's faded in the lane and each of those, by no means has disgraced himself and hitting the board in each. Blinkers are removed today, to possibly have this one observe other ones coming alongside of him in the stretch, so he can possibly dig in a little deeper. #8 SARATOGA WARRIOR has a couple of decent works on the docket for today's lidlifter, and shedrow has won with half of their six first time sand starters at this level & locale, that are ridden by Louie. The winners came back $15, $11, and $5, but as the pedigree is still a bit unproven, we'll keep beneath. #5 JOKER ON FIRE has a whopping Tommy for today's curtain raising, and is showing a bullet gate move, which is something that always merits inclusion.

#8 CRITICAL THREAT hasn't been seen since early April, when she won for the second time in three outings, and after turning a quick profit off the claim, is halved in price this afternoon while retaining the pre layoff pilot. Gelding has done okay at the trip and over the strip, but take a look see in the paddock. #5 EMERALD FOREST drops nearly $20,000 today after being kept in jail since the June 9th purchase. We dig her lifetime declining Mark of 36:10-6-4, and while she rates a shot to perk up because of said drop, we wouldn't go hog wild here. #9 HIGH HEAT rounds out the top three.

#9 PRINCESS MADISON really put it all together when picking up the sheepskin down south 41 days in the rear, as he was geared down crossing the line, and it's worth noting that the runnerup finisher from that day return victorious, while improving in the speed figure department by 19.8%. From a trainer stat point of view, Bauer is three or four with allowance sand dashers who got there first win 29 to 50 days in the rear. The winners paid $23, $5, and $6, and J/T combo have done well together. #2 WAILUA just about went all the way when going over the main for the first time and while a regression is possible in the second off the bench deal, we're pretty sure the connections will keep this one sharp. #7 ROSWELL has never finished off the board, and is in the third of the layoff portion of her form cycle today.

#4 VINO ROUGE has partaken in the superfecta in all her starts but one, and gets a little bit of class relief after the solid placing versus state's competition about a month ago. Could be sitting on a good one beneath Johnny, who guided this one to her only win back in the fall. #7 DETERMINED LILY shoots for the grand salami today, and we see no reason why it isn't feasible, especially given the game the neck defeat the only time she was in the third off the bench spot. #8 MORE MANGO had a heartbreaking defeat at 49-1 when bested by her barnmate last out, and as she's improved from a numerical standpoint in all of her second off the bench heats, we can possibly be looking at another solid effort have at what may still be a nice offering. OFF TURF:6-4-9-1-11

#4 GEOPOLITICS appears to be the clear speed of this deal, and although she may have outran her turf pedigree last time out, even if that falters her today, the dirt speed could be enough to get the job done. Mildest of selections for this prodigious money burner. #7 BAREFOOT DISCO hasn't been seen in nearly the full length of a calendar, but gets the wonder drug for today's comebacker, as well as picking up Flavor Flav. Barn not having their best of years, so try to demand a little bit of value. #11 CERETTA is beginning to give the impression of being that kind of maiden, but we'll chunk in in a finale with a dearth of other options. OFF TURF: 2-5-1-7-11

Saratoga Summer ( Current ): 10-61 ( $243.50 ) Beatable Favorites: 1-3 ( 33.3% ) Favorite's Win %: 21-61 ( 34.4% )( As of Friday morning )

Aqueduct Spring/Summer ( Final ): 66-292 ( $454.70 )Beatable Favorites: 4-10 ( 40% ) Favorite's Win %: 118-292 ( 40.4% )

Saratoga Spring ( Final ): 7-47 ( $31.20 ) Beatable Favorites: N/A Favorite's Win %: 19-47 ( 40.4% )

Aqueduct Spring( Final ): 28-136 ( $278.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 1-10 ( 10% ) Favorite's Win %: 57-136 ( 41.9% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 85-377 ( $616.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-16 ( 31.3% )Favorite's Win %139-377 ( 36.9% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )

Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4241-20632 ($34,946.80) +/-: -15.3% against a 16.1% takeout . Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 )

Beatable Favorites : 474-1772( 26.8% ) Favorite's Win %: 7945-21369( 37.2% )

Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4261-21247 ( $35,897.30 ) +/-: -15.5% against a 16.6% takeout

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): ( Odds not posted as of 12:22 P.M. Saturday )

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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.

These three and no more for all our rolling action. #5 SHAKIN THE BELLE ( who should be no worse than 3rd for all you show grinders out there ) has been a different animal over her last triad, posting successive career best numbers. Not much more to say here, as she needn't do much to get the job done. #8 CONNIVING is halved in price off the layoff, and posted an adjusted 66.1 in his only start off the bench, which happened to come from an outside placement. #1 TWO TONS OF FUN has the white flag run up on him today, as this $100,000 Keeneland purchase can be all yours for a double saw buck this afternoon. Obvious factor is able to get back to the dirt efforts.

#10 OUT ON BAIL has hit the board in both starts to date, and exits a race where the first two who finished directly in front of him, finished first and third in their next outings, increasing in the Beyer department by an average of seven points. As for today's surface transition, we see that the paternal granddam was 6 of 13 on the stuff, having banked more than 350 large, which includes a Grade Two victory. Obviously we love the draw. #9 ARMY PROUD is showing a nice turf breeze at Oklahoma for today's debut, and as a January foal, has a maturity edge on all those who have yet to race. #4 STRAND ROAD is as good as any for the show dough. OFF TURF: 4-2-7-3-2B(AE)

#5 STRONG PLAY came from the back of the back after breaking a bit tardy to get up in time in procuring the sheepskin at first asking, and ended up in a different barn afterwards. Flavor Flav now takes over, and a repeat is well within reach. #6 MEL'S BABY SISTER has partaken in the exacta in four of her five recent events, and we see no reason another goodie isn't attainable in today's third start off the bench. #7 MALU was a visually impressive victress versus conditional platers last week, and is wheeled right back for the new outfit.

#5 BARRON'S BOUNCE hasn't been seen since finishing in the back half of the pack at 8/5 on the 17th of May, and drops a couple of pegs for the comebacker, but does in fact, secure the meet's leading rider. Take a looksee during the warmups. #2 TWO JAY'S WAY had an awkward onset to the bow, and is another one sliding down for today's surface transition. Could spice things up beneath. #1 BIG EGO ( Dig it. ) enters today off a lifetime best numero, and after being kept in jail since the purchase, is dropped 25% in class now. Can't fault those taking a favorable view.

#5 BRAMITO has been beset by back to back layoff lines, but new trainer makes this one available for purchase for the first time, while removing his procreating abilities. While the turf pedigree is a bit suspect, we see that the paternal grandsire was three for three on the stuff, and barn does quite well when being handed a runner. Recognize the insane DRF Formulator statistic, which has this jockey/trainer combination on a sizzling 7 fer 11 run with locally based runners at 18 to 1 or less. The winners came back $37, $15, $12, $20, $7, $4, and $5. Very intriguing prospect here. #7 FUNNY UNCLE gave a solid account of himself when finishing a lively runner up versus a tougher allotment down in Louisville last time out, and although he didn't show much in the sole turf engagement, is just as decently bred for it as the brown stuff. #9 UNION EXPRESS has hit the board in his last quartet, and those efforts were on both the turf and synthetic. Logical contender. OFF TURF: 1-3-7-11-6

#2 I'M JUST KIDDING hasn't been seen since early January, but lost by only a length in his only comebacker on the turf, and Irad guided her to a solid 3rd place finish in their lone pairing. #5 SPINNING COLORS hasn't been seen since Hector was a pup, but lost by less than two lengths at 53 to 1 in her only return deal. It's nice to see Johnny get back on, as he was astride for the maiden breaking performance. #3 SPOOKY LADY has oodles of early zip, and may land a share. OFF TURF: 7-2-5-4-1

#5 CLEARLY UNHINGED ( I think we ALL know someone like that ) shoots for the hat trick today, and as she is supported by a solid trainer statistic, we'd say it's quite feasible. Over the last 60 months, The As-Man is 5:4-0-1 with Saratoga based female sand sprinters who got the job done 51 to 65 days in the past, and are NOT receiving Lasix. The ROI for that study is $4.16, and she just may have a shot of out of upsetting the favorite here. #5 STERLING SILVER is a win machine who recently went over the $750,000 mark, and has done okay at today's distance of ground. Could do with pace duel up front. Oh yeah, Mott has one with half of his six 'toga based dirt dashers who hit the board 12 to 50 days in the past at 11-1 or less, and are not receiving the wonder drug; the payoffs were a fat $22, $20, and $4. #6 SPIRIT WIND is 5 of 6 at today's distance, and what the hell is wrong with that?

#11 PAROS overcame some obstacles to get up in time when winning this race down at Aqueduct on the 5th of July, and we see no reason she can't get the job done once again beneath this helmsman, who is a groovy three of four in the irons. #8 KALIK went coast to coast like butter and toast when winning a Grade 2 last year the only time she was in a third off the layoff jammie, but has hit the skids since then, and is now up for grabs for the first time. Mixed signals, but you can't leave out of your rolling bets. #4 STREET READY has a decent amount of back class, and has done okay in this zip code. OFF TURF: 1-5-7-4-2

#6 TONGUE TWISTER didn't do much to get the heart thumpiing in the comeback try, but was a bit wide that day, and may have needed the race in her first two turn attempt. Slight chance to make amends here in a humdrum nightcap. #2 QUITE CONTINENTAL has been beset by back to back layoff lines to begin her working life, but gets an upgrade in the barn area today, and rates a puncher's chance if able to get back to the debut performance down in Oldsmar. #10 SAVING MEMORIES makes her third 'true' start off the layoff today, and could grab a piece. OFF TURF: 9-6-3-5-2

Saratoga Summer ( Current ): 16-83 ( $307.40 ) Beatable Favorites: 1-5 ( 20% ) Favorite's Win %: 29-83 ( 34.9% )( As of Sunday morning ))

Aqueduct Spring/Summer ( Final ): 66-292 ( $454.70 )Beatable Favorites: 4-10 ( 40% ) Favorite's Win %: 118-292 ( 40.4% )

Saratoga Spring ( Final ): 7-47 ( $31.20 ) Beatable Favorites: N/A Favorite's Win %: 19-47 ( 40.4% )

Aqueduct Spring( Final ): 28-136 ( $278.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 1-10 ( 10% ) Favorite's Win %: 57-136 ( 41.9% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 85-377 ( $616.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-16 ( 31.3% ) Favorite's Win %139-377 ( 36.9% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )

Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4241-20632 ($34,946.80) +/-: -15.3% against a 16.1% takeout . Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 )

Beatable Favorites : 474-1772( 26.8% ) Favorite's Win %: 7945-21369( 37.2% )

Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4261-21247 ( $35,897.30 ) +/-: -15.5% against a 16.6% takeout